Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia

Abstract

This study investigated that the effects of cochineal invasion and climate change on cactus
pear distribution. Rainfall and temperature were projected to near, mid, and end-century with
emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) using R-programing language. Average temperature will
be increased by 1.7, 2.3, and 2.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 2, 2.8, and 4°C in RCP 8.5 at 2010-2039,
2040-2069, and 2070-2099, respectively, and there will be temporal and spatial rainfall
variation. The cactus pear distribution will be reduced by 13, 0.51, and 27% during mid-century
of RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5, and RCP8.5 of end-century, consistently. But, it will be increased by
0.8% at the end-century of RCP4.5. The impact of climate change in future cactus pear
distribution is insignificant. In addition, the probability of cochineal invasion will be increased by
about 72, 74, 62, and 94% by mid and end-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. This has
a significant impact on future cactus pear distribution. The combined effect of climate change
and cochineal invasion will affect 72, 78, 63, and 85% of cactus pear distribution by mid and
end-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. It has a significant impact on future cactus pear
distribution. Therefore, the study recommends well-designed management strategies to ensure
cactus pear survival.